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Community Readiness

Symposium 2018

308: Use of Alternative Scenarios to Incorporate Uncertainty in Forecasting

October 11, 2018

2:00pm - 3:00pm

Technology is reshaping mobility, the consequences from climate change are looming, and our core political arrangements are being rethought. Transportation planning will have to adapt by explicitly considering a broad range of future conditions, including alternative demographic profiles and key risk factors. The use of scenario forecasting in plan evaluation will help make long-range transportation plans robust by ensuring that the preferred alternative performs well under a wide variety of future conditions, rather than being optimized for a single, desired future.
Learning Objectives:

  • Gain knowledge about three or more trends that can be amplified to generate future scenarios
  • Understand how three dimensions can be varied to translate a future scenario into a forecasting framework
  • Understand how three criteria can be used to evaluate the performance of a transportation plan under a variety of future scenarios